Date - 05-06-2025

Nifty Expiry Analysis for 5th June 2025: Intraday Strategy Using 5-Minute Chart & Option Chain Insights

Cashparency Papers

Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and views of the market. It is not a trading recommendation. Please use this information solely as a reference and do your own research before making any trading decisions. I am not SEBI-registered and am not authorized to provide investment advice. The purpose of Cashparency Papers is to share my market perspectives and analysis to help others learn how I approach trading and market trends. Neither I, Cashparency, nor any of its associated entities are responsible for any profits or losses incurred. You are solely responsible for your capital—please trade wisely. Happy Trading!

Step 1: Analysis of Nifty Option Chain Data

The Nifty Option Chain data for the expiry date of June 5, 2025, provides insights into market sentiment and key price levels. Here’s a breakdown of the key metrics and observations:

• Spot Price: 24,620.20, up by 27.7 points (+0.32%), indicating a slight bullish movement.
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.6048, below 1, suggesting bearish sentiment as more call options are being traded compared to puts. This typically implies that traders expect either limited upside or are writing calls to bet against a significant rally.
• India VIX: 15.75, down by 0.81, reflecting moderate market volatility with a slight decrease, suggesting a stable to range-bound market in the near term.
• Max Pain: 24,600, just below the current spot price, indicating a level where option sellers (writers) experience the least loss. The price may gravitate toward this level as expiry nears.
• Expected Range: 24,600.00 to 25,500.00, outlining the potential trading range derived from option data.
• Open Interest (OI):
  • Calls: Highest OI at 25,000 (1,87,057), 24,600 (1,48,309), and 24,700 (1,24,030), pointing to strong resistance at these levels.
  • Puts: Highest OI at 24,600 (1,39,680), 24,000 (1,33,605), and 24,500 (65,351), indicating support at these levels.
• OI Buildup:
  • Call Writing: Notable at 24,600 (+47,520 OI, +47%), 24,650 (+23,762 OI, +56%), and 24,700 (+27,227 OI, +28%), reinforcing resistance as sellers expect the price to stay below these levels.
  • Put Writing: Significant at 24,600 (+6,930 OI, +85%) and 24,500 (+33,163 OI, +91%), suggesting support as sellers anticipate the price will hold above these levels.

Key Levels from Option Chain

• Resistance: 24,600 (ATM strike with high call OI), 24,650, 24,700, and 25,000.
• Support: 24,600 (high put OI), 24,500, and 24,000.

Market Sentiment

The PCR of 0.6048 and heavy call writing at and above 24,600 indicate a bearish outlook, with traders betting against a significant upward move. The proximity of the Max Pain level (24,600) to the spot price suggests potential price stability or a slight pullback toward this level.

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Step 2: Analysis of the Nifty 5-Minute Chart

The 5-minute candlestick chart of the Nifty 50 Index, dated June 5, 2025, at 00:03 UTC (5:30 IST), spans from late April to early June 2025. Here’s a summary of the price action:

• Current Price: 24,612.00, up by 48.85 points (+0.32%), aligning closely with the option chain’s spot price.
• Price Movement:
  • From late April (starting at ~22,200), the index trended upward, peaking at ~25,600 around mid-May.
  • A sharp decline followed, dropping to ~24,200 by May 20.
  • From late May to early June, the index consolidated between 24,200 and 24,800, with the latest price at 24,612.00, near the upper end of this range.
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 24,200 (recent swing low), 24,500 (psychological level and supported by option chain data).
  • Resistance: 24,700–24,800 (recent highs), 25,000 (psychological level and option chain resistance).

Current Position

At 24,612.00, the index is hovering around 24,600, a critical level identified as both support (high put OI) and resistance (high call OI) in the option chain, suggesting a pivotal point for short-term price action.

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Step 3: Combined Analysis and Market Bias

• Chart: The Nifty is in a consolidation phase around 24,600 after a volatile period, with the price testing a key level that serves as both support and resistance.
• Option Chain: Bearish signals from high call OI at 24,600 and above, coupled with put OI at 24,600 providing support, indicate a neutral to slightly bearish bias. The PCR and Max Pain reinforce this view, suggesting stability or a potential pullback.
• Market Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish. The index faces resistance at 24,600–24,700, and a breakout above 24,700 with strong volume could shift the bias to bullish.

Conclusion

The Nifty 50 Index is consolidating around 24,600, a pivotal level with high call and put OI, as seen in the option chain, and supported by the 5-minute chart’s recent price action. The bearish PCR (0.6048), heavy call writing at 24,600–24,700, and Max Pain at 24,600 suggest a neutral to slightly bearish outlook, with resistance capping upside potential. Traders can leverage this range-bound scenario with the bearish put option trade as the preferred setup, while keeping the bullish call option as an alternative if a breakout occurs. Monitor key levels (support: 24,500, 24,200; resistance: 24,600, 24,700, 25,000) and volume for confirmation.

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